What are the chances of developing Kessler syndrome?
It’s difficult to gauge the exact odds of Kessler’s syndrome, but the chances increase with each satellite launch. dramatically increased the likelihood of Kessler syndrome.
“Starlink’s strategy is to place a very large number of satellites in these very dense orbital shells,” Lawler told IE. “Obviously, they have a lot of vested interest in keeping satellites from colliding with each other. Crashing into his junk and so on, creating a lot of debris.”
SpaceX regularly launches about 50 Starlink satellites at a time, and CEO Elon Musk recently claimed that the company “will have more than 4,200 Starlink satellites operational within 18 months.” This accounts for two-thirds of all active satellites. Other companies such as Amazon, which is running the Kuiper project, are also looking to launch their own megahi constellations. That means the sky will be more crowded and the Kessler effect will be more likely.
However, there is another way to look at the problem.
Spacecraft have already collided and crashed in orbit, and potentially dangerous debris is already circling the Earth at speeds of miles per second. In fact, earlier this year, the International Space Station was forced into an unscheduled maneuver to avoid Russian space debris from anti-satellite weapon tests. It collided with the communications satellite Iridium 33, creating about 2,000 pieces of space debris.