Illustrated by Brendan Lynch/Axios
All 90 seats in the state legislature are up for election. However, most of them rule either Democrats or Republicans, so he is considered competitive and determines which party controls the Senate and House of Representatives. Only 15 seats maximum.
State of play: This will be the state’s first election under a new legislative map redrawn by the Arizona Independent Re-electoral Commission (AIRC) late last year.
- The commission used the results and average voter turnout (the difference between Democrats and Republicans in those nine elections) from nine statewide elections in the last three election cycles to determine district competitiveness.
- Republicans now have a narrow majority in both houses, 16-14 in the Senate and 31-29 in the House.
Ward 2
The North Phoenix-based constituency leans slightly towards the GOP with a 3.8% vote spread.
Senate: Republican Rep. Steve Kaiser, who owns a commercial junk removal company, is running for an open Senate seat against Democrat Jean Castine, executive director of the Secular Coalition in Arizona.
House: Two incumbents, Democrat Judy Schweebert and Republican Justin Wilmeth, and Republican challenger Christian Lamar are vying for the district’s two House seats.
Area 4
The Republican Party, which stretches from the Arcadia area to Paradise Valley and parts of northern Phoenix and northern Scottsdale, received 3.4% of the vote.
Senate: Two incumbent senators were at odds in the general election due to redistricting. Republican Nancy Barthes, who has been in Congress since 2007, will face first-term Democrat Christine Marsh.
- Barto has long been one of the legislature’s most ardent defenders of the anti-abortion rights bill.
- Republicans have branded Marsh as anti-police and hostile to parental choice in K-12 education.
House: Democrat and elementary school teacher Laura Terek is running against Republican Matt Gress, the longtime budget director of Gov. Doug Ducey, and former Congressman Maria Sims.
9th district
Based in West Mesa, the district is the only competitive district that leans Democratic, according to AIRC metrics. He has 2.6% of the vote for Democrats to Republicans.
Senate: Republican moderate incumbent Senator Tyler Pace lost the Republican primary to Trump supporter Robert Scantlebury, boosting hopes of Democrats winning the district.
- Scantlebury, a retired Mesa police officer, confronts Democrat Eva Birch, a nurse.
House: The race features Democrat Lorena Austin, student government advisor at Mesa Community College, and small business owner Seth Bratman.
- They are Republican Mary Ann Mendoza, who became a prominent anti-illegal immigration advocate after her son was killed by someone who entered the country illegally, and Arizona Heroes To, a nonprofit that helps wounded veterans.・She is facing Kathy Pearce of Hometowns. His two open parliamentary seats in the district.
13 wards
On paper, the Chandler-based constituency is the most competitive in the state, with 1.6% of the Republican vote.
Senate: Incumbent Republican Senator JD Mesnard is seeking re-election against Democrat Cindy Hans, a former teacher and principal.
House: Democratic incumbent Rep. Jennifer Paulick is taking on Republican Liz Harris and nurse Julie Willoughby, who led a canvas of would-be voters after the 2020 election.
16 wards
This Pinal County central district is probably the least competitive of the five districts. Republicans won only 3.6% of the vote, but won all nine of his constituencies, which the AIRC used as a benchmark to judge competitiveness.
Senate: Incumbent Republican Senator TJ Shope is seeking re-election against Democrat Taylor Kirby, a sixth-grade teacher and school board member.
House: Republican incumbent Teresa Martinez and Republican Reverend Rob Hudelson face off against former teacher and Democratic nominee Keith Seaman.
