The presence of debris in Earth’s orbit poses a significant risk to human activity in outer space. This debris count continues to grow due to ground launches, the loss of external parts from spacecraft, and uncontrolled collisions between objects.
Computable continuum models of debris population growth and its spatial distribution are therefore important. Here, we propose a diffusion collision model for the evolution of debris density in low Earth orbit (LEO) and its dependence on ground launch policy. We parameterize this model and test it against data from public object catalogs to examine the timescales of uncontrolled growth. Finally, we consider prudent launch policies and cleanup strategies, and how they mitigate future risks of collisions with active satellites and spacecraft.
Subject: Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP)
Quote: arXiv:2210.16179 [astro-ph.EP] (or arXiv:2210.16179v1 [astro-ph.EP] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2210.16179
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Submission history
From: John Jerkewicz
[v1] Wednesday, October 26, 2022 02:07:30 UTC (3,677 KB)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.16179
